Trends in the nephrologist workforce in South Africa (2002-2017) and forecasting for 2030.

BACKGROUND: The growing global health burden of kidney disease is substantial and the nephrology workforce is critical to managing it. There are concerns that the nephrology workforce appears to be shrinking in many countries. This study analyses trends in South Africa for the period 2002-2017, describes current training capacity and uses this as a basis for forecasting the nephrology workforce for 2030. METHODS: Data on registered nephrologists for the period 2002 to 2017 was obtained from the Health Professions Council of South Africa and the Colleges of Medicine of South Africa. Training capacity was assessed using data on government-funded posts for nephrologists and nephrology trainees, as well as training post numbers (the latter reflecting potential training capacity). Based on the trends, the gap in the supply of nephrologists was forecast for 2030 based on three targets: reducing the inequalities in provincial nephrologist densities, reducing the gap between public and private sector nephrologist densities, and international benchmarking using the Global Kidney Health Atlas and British Renal Society recommendations. RESULTS: The number of nephrologists increased from 53 to 141 (paediatric nephrologists increased from 9 to 22) over the period 2002-2017. The density in 2017 was 2.5 nephrologists per million population (pmp). In 2002, the median age of nephrologists was 46 years (interquartile range (IQR) 39-56 years) and in 2017 the median age was 48 years (IQR 41-56 years). The number of female nephrologists increased from 4 to 43 and the number of Black nephrologists increased from 3 to 24. There have been no nephrologists practising in the North West and Mpumalanga provinces and only one each in Limpopo and the Northern Cape. The current rate of production of nephrologists is eight per year. At this rate, and considering estimates of nephrologists exiting the workforce, there will be 2.6 nephrologists pmp in 2030. There are 17 government-funded nephrology trainee posts while the potential number based on the prescribed trainer-trainee ratio is 72. To increase the nephrologist density of all provinces to at least the level of KwaZulu-Natal (2.8 pmp), which has a density closest to the country average, a projected 72 additional nephrologists (six per year) would be needed by 2030. Benchmarking against the 25th centile (5.1 pmp) of upper-middle-income countries (UMICs) reported in the Global Kidney Health Atlas would require the training of an additional eight nephrologists per year. CONCLUSIONS: South Africa has insufficient nephrologists, especially in the public sector and in certain provinces. A substantial increase in the production of new nephrologists is required. This requires an increase in funded training posts and posts for qualified nephrologists in the public sector. This study has estimated the numbers and distribution of nephrologists needed to address provincial inequalities and achieve realistic nephrologist density targets.

Human resources for nephrology in South Africa: A mixed-methods study.

INTRODUCTION: The global nephrology workforce is shrinking and, in many countries, is unable to meet healthcare needs. Accurate data pertaining to human resources in nephrology in South Africa is lacking. This data is critical for the planning and delivery of renal services and the training of nephrologists in South Africa to meet the challenge of the growing burden of chronic kidney disease. METHODS: A cross-sectional study of adult and paediatric nephrologists currently delivering nephrology services in South Africa was conducted. Participants were identified using various data sources, including the register of the Health Professions Council of South Africa. This cohort of doctors was described in terms of their demographics and distribution. A survey was then conducted among these nephrologists to collect additional information on their training, scope of practice, job satisfaction, challenges and future plans. Finally, two focus group interviews were conducted to probe themes identified from the survey data. RESULTS: A total of 120 adult nephrologists and 22 paediatric nephrologists were identified (an overall density of 2.5 per million population). There is a male predominance (66%) and the median age is 45 years. The bulk of the workforce (128 nephrologists, 92%) is distributed in three of the nine South African provinces, and two provinces have no nephrologist at all. The survey was completed by 57% of the nephrologists. Most reported positive attitudes to their chosen profession; however, 35 nephrologists (43%) reported an excessive workload, 9 (11%) were planning emigration and 15 (19%) were planning early retirement. A higher frequency of dissatisfaction regarding remuneration (39% vs. 15%) and unsatisfactory work conditions (35% vs. 13%) was observed amongst nephrologists working in the public sector compared to the private sector. A total of 13 nephrologists participated in the focus group interviews. The themes which were identified included that of a rewarding profession, an overall shortage of nephrologists, poor career planning, a need for changes to nephrologists' training, excessive workloads with inadequate remuneration, and challenging work environments. CONCLUSION: There are insufficient numbers of nephrologists in South Africa, with a markedly uneven distribution amongst the provinces and healthcare sectors. Qualitative data indicate that South African nephrologists are faced with the challenges of a high workload, obstructive policies and unsatisfactory remuneration. In the public sector, a chronic lack of nephrologist posts and other resources are additional challenges. A substantial proportion of the workforce is contemplating emigration.

Pattern of renal amyloidosis in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Kidney disease is a serious manifestation of systemic amyloidosis and a major cause of morbidity and mortality. Tuberculosis (TB) occurs up to 27 times more commonly in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients and is also an important cause of renal amyloid; there are however no reports of renal amyloidosis in South Africa in the HIV era. METHODS: This was a retrospective record review of cases of amyloidosis diagnosed on renal biopsies at our tertiary referral hospital between January 1985 and December 2016. RESULTS: Forty-six cases of amyloidosis were identified over the study period. The calculated biopsy prevalence was 1.38 per 100 non-transplant renal biopsies (95% Confidence Interval 1.02-1.86). AL amyloidosis was identified in 26 (57%) cases and AA in 20 (43%). The median age at presentation was 51 years and 52% of cases were female. Patients with AA amyloidosis were significantly younger compared to their AL counterparts (age 42 years vs. 58 years, p = < 0.001) and were all significantly non-white. The main clinical presentation was nephrotic syndrome (85%) and 52% of cases also had a serum creatinine value of greater than 120 µmol/L. Of the 20 cases of AA amyloidosis, 12 (60%) were associated with tuberculosis. HIV infection was noted in only two (10%) of the 20 AA cases. Median survival after diagnosis was 2 months. CONCLUSION: Amyloidosis is a rare cause of kidney disease and typically presents with nephrotic syndrome. A similar number of AA and AL types were observed, and outcomes are worse in cases of AA amyloid. While TB remains the major underlying disease in this type, HIV infection was infrequent in cases of AA renal amyloidosis.